Markets & Headlines - 2/12/25

Markets

Treasury yields shoots upward after a higher-than-expected inflation in January. #CPI rose 0.5% in January compared to the month prior. $DXY gains accordingly. Market sentiment persists, with much of Europe seeing appreciation, $BTC hanging in the $95k range, $SPX in the 6,000 range for almost 3 months now. India continues the gradual descent from September highs.

Headlines

• Trump says interest rates should be lowered to go ‘hand in hand’ with his tariffs

• Wall Street analysts react to U.S. inflation data

January CPI +0.5% MoM

• 10-year Treasury yield shoots above 4.6% after hot CPI report

#US10Y jumps 9bps to 4.63%, #US2Y jumps 8bps to 4.37%

• Dow closes 200 points lower, S&P 500 falls after hot consumer inflation report: Live updates

• India’s Modi to meet with Trump, Musk on Thursday as trade tensions mount

Modi will likely procure more LNG and defense equipment. He will also meet Musk.

• Trump Says He and Putin Agreed to Begin Talks on Ending Ukraine War

Trump says he had a “lengthy and highly productive phone call” with Putin. Meanwhile US Treasury Secretary Bessent is in Ukraine to talk minerals.

• Israel Sees Opening for Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites, U.S. Intelligence Warned

The intelligence came in near end of Biden’s term.

• Trump froze a bribery law that previously hit suppliers for Elon Musk’s Tesla

Trump paused the enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act

• Elon Musk-led DOGE seen saving as much as $350 billion a year - Wolfe Research

There is a doge tracker website based on information on X

• OpenAI plans to simplify AI products in new road map for latest models, CEO Altman says

• U.S. posts $129 billion January deficit on calendar shifts, higher outlays

• Chevron to lay off up to 20% of global workforce

Aims to cut costs by $2b through 2026.

• Japan, Australia seek exemption from U.S. steel, aluminum tariffs

• Fed’s Powell sees a ways to go on shrinking Fed holdings

Powell will continue with QT, a process started in June 2022, when inflation was peaking. The Fed has shed $2t from its balance sheet since then.

• Dollar gains on yen as consumer prices rise more than expected

Yen is highly sensitive to the interest rate gap. Treasury yields jumped from the CPI shock.